The carriers built theirs in 2014. Now we have ours.
Allstate ran claims-side ML on its internal settlement data starting 2014. By 2019, every major US property-casualty insurer was setting reserves with a model. The plaintiff side has been outgunned on data for a decade. Predict closes the asymmetry.
312K verdicts and reported settlements across MVA and premises liability. On a held-out test set, predicted values are 90 to 92% accurate against the realized settlement (median absolute percentage error), each shown with a 90% confidence band. How we measure this →
Same kind of instrument. Opposite side of the table.
In plain terms: the carrier shows up to negotiation with a number from a model. Until now you showed up with comps and instinct. Predict gives you a number from a model built on plaintiff outcomes, with the same statistical rigor, so the table is even.
The architecture pattern is the same one the carrier-side claims models use, gradient-boosted regression with stratified jurisdiction folds. The deliberate differences are upstream of the model: the training data is plaintiff outcomes, not carrier paid losses; the methodology is public, not proprietary; the recalibration policy is contractual, not internal; the side of the table is fixed by the brand commitment, not by the buyer.
For 12 years the plaintiff bar has been pricing cases with Verdict Search and institutional memory while the carrier opened with a modeled number. The asymmetry defines a generation of practice. Predict ends it.
Read the full methodology →Bring a model to the next mediation.
Predict a current case and see what a defensible counter-anchor looks like: confidence-banded, jurisdiction-tuned, sourced to the comparable-verdict cohort.
Enter the jurisdiction, injury type, and basic case facts. In about two minutes you get a jurisdiction-tuned settlement estimate with its confidence band and the comparable-verdict cohort it is sourced to.
A 14-day free trial gives you a defensible, confidence-banded number on every case in your intake pipeline. One better-anchored settlement covers a year of it. $499/mo, cancel anytime in one click. See pricing.