Premises liability settlement calculator.
Slip-and-fall, retail premises, commercial property. A jurisdiction-tuned, comparative-fault-aware settlement value for premises liability cases. Calibrated to a held-out PL test set at 91% accuracy.
Predict your premises case in 60 seconds.
The number above is a sample, not your case. Answer six questions on the next screen and we return your case's own number with its own 90% confidence band, comparative-fault aware. No signup to start. The trial only unlocks the comp set and the demand-letter export.
Predict your case →91% is the median accuracy (MdAPE) on a held-out PL test set the model never trained on, measured with a 90% confidence interval. The method and the per-jurisdiction breakdown are public: see how the predictions are made and the per-jurisdiction PL calibration write-up.
PL bands run wider than MVA — and the data explains why.
Same severity tier, same plaintiff attorney, same intake call — the model carries less certainty on a PL case because the underlying data is sparser and the comparative-fault story is harder.
Bars show typical 90% confidence band width at moderate severity. Wider bar = more uncertainty.
Why premises liability cases are harder to value than MVA
Written by the team that calibrated the model, for attorneys deciding whether to trust a premises number. If you just want your case's figure, run the six-question prediction above. The detail below is here when you want to check our work.
Premises liability looks adjacent to MVA in the case-management view — same plaintiff attorney, same intake call, same severity ladder, similar damages math. It is not the same modeling problem. PL cases carry more variance on three dimensions, and the confidence bands on PL predictions reflect each one:
- Comparative fault exposure is materially larger. Almost every premises case carries a defense narrative — the plaintiff knew about the condition, the warning sign was posted, the lighting was adequate. The defense rarely concedes liability the way a rear-impact MVA defense does. The Predict model's "liability" input on the calculator is more often "shared" or "probable" for PL than for MVA, and the corresponding settlement multiplier compresses accordingly.
- Fact patterns vary widely. Slip-and-fall in a grocery store, slip on ice outside an office building, fall down stairs in a residential property, trip on a sidewalk crack — the underlying causation story shapes the damages calculation in ways that don't appear in MVA cases.
- Verdict density is lower. 72,000 PL outcomes in training versus 198,000 MVA. Less data, modestly wider bands.
The consequence: confidence bands on premises predictions run ±12–18% at moderate severity, versus ±8–14% on MVA. Not dramatically wider, but visibly wider — and the difference is honest.
What moves a premises liability settlement number
Five inputs do most of the work at the intake call:
- Liability narrative. The defense will run a comparative-fault narrative on almost every PL case. The strength of the plaintiff's notice argument (was the condition open and obvious? how long was the hazard present? did the property owner have actual or constructive notice?) drives the liability score.
- Property class. Retail premises with commercial general liability coverage settle higher than residential premises. Government property carries sovereign immunity exposure. Industrial premises have OSHA-overlap considerations.
- Injury severity. The severity ladder is similar to MVA — minor through catastrophic — but the multipliers on premises cases at the moderate tier run 10–15% below the MVA equivalents, because comparative-fault exposure is priced in.
- Medical specials. Same anchor as MVA, with the same caveats around the "multiple of meds" heuristic.
- Jurisdiction. Per-state distinctions matter even more for premises than for MVA. New York Labor Law cases sit in a separate jurisdiction fold. Florida's pure comparative rule treats PL meaningfully differently than its no-fault MVA regime.
Jurisdiction differences in PL settle differently than in MVA
One of the more counterintuitive findings in the training data: PL median settlement values in no-fault MVA states are not compressed the way MVA values are. Florida — where MVA cases are bound by the $10K PIP threshold and serious-injury exit — has premises liability medians that run notably higher than the state's MVA medians. Same plaintiff, same state, materially different case economics depending on the case type.
The Predict model treats the case type and jurisdiction as independent inputs and trains separate jurisdiction folds for each. Per-state breakdowns are on the state-by-state calculator hub.
How this differs from a verdict-search lookup
A verdict database hands you comparables and leaves the weighting to you. You read a stack of cases and decide, by feel, how much each one should move your number. Predict does the weighting first. The liability narrative, property class, jurisdiction fold, and injury severity are scored against the 72,000 premises outcomes in training, and the result ships with a 90% confidence band so you can see exactly how much certainty the model is willing to commit to. The comparables are still there under every number when you want to check them. You just start from a calibrated figure instead of a stack of cases, and you start from the band, not a single point.
What the calculator does not do
The free calculator on this page does not cite the comparable-verdict cohort, does not factor in property class beyond the case-type field, does not address Labor Law exposure for New York cases, and does not produce a demand-letter-ready valuation block. Those features run inside the 14-day free trial. No credit card to start the trial.
After the trial, Predict is $499 per month, unlimited predictions, billed monthly. Cancel anytime in one click. For context, the under-valuation on a single mis-anchored premises case usually exceeds a year of access.
Related calculators and methodology.
MVA settlement calculator
The other half of Predict's calibrated case-type set. Tighter bands than premises liability — and why.
Open MVA calculator → Sub-pillar · By statePL settlement value by state
Per-state medians for premises liability, comparative-fault rules, jurisdiction-specific notice doctrine.
See the state hub → MethodologyHow the PL predictions are made
Gradient-boosted regression, stratified jurisdiction folds, comparative-fault treatment.
Read the methodology → BlogAccurately Predicting Premises Liability Cases
The per-jurisdiction MdAPE calibration that produced the 91% PL accuracy figure.
Read the post →Try Predict on the next premises case in your pipeline.
Predict the case free in under a minute and see what a comparative-fault-aware PL number looks like. The 14-day trial unlocks unlimited predictions, the comp set behind every number, and the demand-letter export. After the trial, Predict is $499 per month, billed monthly. $0 today, no card to start, cancel anytime in one click.