Compare · Predict vs Gut + Spreadsheet

The spreadsheet got you here. It won't get you to the next number.

Predict estimates plaintiff-side settlement value for motor vehicle and premises liability cases, jurisdiction-tuned and shown with a confidence band.

Instinct + a list of your last 30 matters + a partner you can call is the default tool every solo PI attorney uses. It's free, it's fast, and it's the right tool, right up until the case isn't shaped like the last 30.

Time to a defensible number

The spreadsheet is fast when the case matches. It's slow when it doesn't, and you don't always know which kind you have.

Predict
30 sec
Familiar case
~15 min
Unfamiliar case
~3 hrs

Predict returns a number in about 30 seconds. The spreadsheet times are typical self-reported ranges from solo PI attorneys: fast when the case matches recent matters, slower when it doesn't.

Predict
Gut + Spreadsheet
Cost
$499 / mo, unlimited cases
Free — but the spreadsheet is your time at $200–$350/hr
Sample size
312K verdicts and reported settlements (U.S. MVA and premises, 2018–2025). How we source and dedupe →
Your last 20–60 matters + a partner's institutional memory
Jurisdiction-tuned
Stratified state and county folds
"This is roughly Houston, so…" — informal weighting
Confidence band
Explicit — ± dollar range, 90% CI
Implicit — usually carried as a feeling, not a number
Why the number
Cited cohort of 5–10 comparable verdicts
"I remember the Garcia case settled for $90K" — undocumented
Holds up under cross
Depends entirely on the attorney's seniority and recall
Audit trail
Every prediction logged with inputs + comparables
Email thread + a sheet that didn't get updated last Tuesday
Travels with you
Same model whether you're solo, 7-attorney, or 30
Breaks when you can't keep all the matters in your head

Predicted values are 90–92% accurate against the realized settlement on held-out test cases (MdAPE, strictly temporal split). See the validation method →

Where the spreadsheet still wins.

If you've practiced MVA in one county for 15 years and your last 80 cases all settled in a narrow band, you don't need a model — you are the model. The honest version of this comparison is that the spreadsheet works when the case is shaped like the last 30 and the same attorney is valuing all of them.

It stops working in three places: a case in a jurisdiction you don't usually handle, a fact pattern outside your recent matters, and the moment you try to scale the practice — because the instinct doesn't transfer to the associate or the new hire. Predict is the version of the spreadsheet that survives those three transitions.

Read the full methodology →
$148,000
± $22,000 · 90% CI
TX · HARRIS · MVA
The spreadsheet's gut on this case: 'feels like ~$120K, maybe a bit more.' Predict gives you the band, the cohort, and the methodology.